A press event with Trump, Vance and Zelenskyj comes to a seemingly dramatic end: The Ukrainian head of state is accused of being “ungrateful” and not “ready for peace”. He, in turn, asks for a concrete security guarantee in the event that Putin does not adhere to the terms of a future deal.
Various media outlets tried the usual standard interpretations: Leftists suspect the work of a right-wing global conspiracy. Traditional conspiracy activists adopt the psychopathic Russian attitude and believe that Trump is their man.
Much more important and meaningful than this press event, however, was the CNN interview with Secretary of State Rubio a few days later. He explains, as far as is possible in public, how incredibly difficult it is to answer the question of a mechanism that can ensure compliance with the terms of a deal.
Zelenskyj complains that Putin cannot be trusted. That is completely true. One answer from Trump and Vance could have been that Putin will probably die within 5 years anyway or be ousted and that, according to US intelligence assessments, there are other expectations about successors in the Russian government. This answer would have sounded much better, but would have been far too dangerous.
Rubio cannot reveal on CNN the exact intentions of the US government, which mechanism is planned to permanently enforce a deal on Ukraine. The worse the deal for Ukraine, the easier it is for Russia to break the contract. Ukraine was once betrayed to the Nazis and the Soviets, with millions of deaths as a result.
“High stakes international diplomacy”
The CNN presenter says to Rubio: You yourself have said in the past that Putin cannot be trusted in negotiations.
Rubio counters that the Ukrainians, the Europeans or critics of the Republicans in the USA cannot present a real plan. Simply continuing to supply weapons and hope for the best may sound good, but it is unrealistic for very specific reasons, as he explains: the war is a meat grinder and Russia can muster more meat, including North Koreans. Russia “doesn’t care about human lives.” He doesn’t give any figures, but in principle it is conceivable that half a million North Koreans and possibly additional Chinese could be deployed. They could overrun Ukraine and other territories. Rubio doesn’t say it explicitly, but you can put two and two together. It is common knowledge that according to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, nuclear weapons will be used if the regime shows fundamental weaknesses. There are corresponding threats on Russian TV.
Rubio says the matter is “very complex.” This means that one should not believe that Trump is acting solely on his moods or that the Republicans are only looking out for their own interests.
Rubio mentions that Russia continues to “recruit hundreds of thousands of new soldiers.” North Koreans are already on board. What the Trump administration is doing is “high stakes international diplomacy” and not nonsense.
The CNN lady says that Rubio has already called Putin a butcher and a war criminal in the past. To be fair, it should be mentioned that Trump had intentionally appointed Rubio as Secretary of State.
Rubio counters that he now works for the State Department and his job is therefore to end wars, not to wage them. What he means is that he does not work for the Pentagon.
He remembers Joe Biden once saying in a meeting: “We do not want to supply certain weapons because the Ukrainians would then use them.” In a briefing, the Democratic leadership even said that the war would be “over in six days” anyway. There was also loud shouting between Biden and Selensky away from the cameras.
The EU, according to Rubio, is playing a dangerous game with criticism of the US government, because the EU itself does not have an exit strategy for the war. Trump has “no interest” in a ceasefire that only lasts a year or six months. He will not use words in public that sound great but do nothing.
If Trump were to turn away from the whole issue, who would take over? No one else in the world can. Rubio even explicitly points out that “a lot happens outside the public sphere.” Peace is not achieved “through press conferences and the media.” It is easy to say that we will just supply weapons, come what may. And then the conflict lasts for 15 years.
According to a recent poll, 74% of Republicans want a “quick end to the Ukraine war; with Russia keeping the territory it has already captured.”
The elected Trump administration has to reflect the will of the voters somewhere, even if the party leadership certainly knows that voters often believe complete nonsense. Many (social) media outlets are so insane that they say that Ukraine is not a country and that it provoked Russia on behalf of the left-wing global conspiracy to such an extent that Russia had no choice but to invade. If that is the attitude of Republican voters, then of course Zelenskyj asks whether there will even be an enforcement mechanism for a deal. Or whether the Russians will simply gather strength and then take the whole of Ukraine.
The EU must also serve as an enforcement mechanism. The press conference in the Oval Office, which apparently went wrong, can significantly change the attitude of Europeans. Before that, a lot of people thought that “the Americans” would solve such problems and pay for everything.
It may be that US military leaders knew years ago that the USA would focus on China and the EU on Russia. That is perhaps why they tolerated the expansion of the classic conspiracy media. Normally, Republicans cultivate the nutcases to a limited extent in order to mobilize them as voters. The GOP may be counting on Putin having a maximum of 5 years to live. It would therefore be strategically nonsense to gamble too high against the Russians now. Rubio, Vance and even Trump have more or less made it clear that Putin cannot be trusted. But Putin will not exist forever.
EU
Between 2021 and 2024, total defense spending by EU states rose by 30%. In 2024, the figure was around 326 billion, just under 2% of GDP. Doubling to 4% would mean around 650 billion. Hedge funds are already being discussed to contribute more. These are the numbers the Russians dream of.
EU defense in numbers – Consilium
Error
Trump’s personality is no secret. But who believed in the 2000s that George W. Bush really ran the country according to his own ideas? It would be easy to verbally attack the Trump administration, but this could prove to be a significant mistake. Do you really want the Republicans to lose voters so that the Democrats have more of a chance? As Rubio and Vance said, the Biden administration sounded great on the Ukraine issue but its actions were poor.
Trump seemed old and tired. He is not meant to last forever either. Rubio, Vance, Musk and many others had declared a few years ago that they did not think much of Trump. Then they changed their minds, in favor of the overall situation. Not just for their own careers. In the private sector they can earn more money and have less stress anyway.
1 comment
I agree with your assesment of this situation. If you read https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html you can clearly see that most of these objectives have already been met. I don’t think the current President is rogue or anyones puppet. He’s carrying on with the agenda which is the same through the last 4 administrations? I think the public never hear about this in the news or talk shows. They want us entertained not informed.
I only quit patreon because inflation is killing us with 6 mouths to feed.
I should probably leave this part unwritten but I suppose I want to offer an honest criticism for better or worse:
(I completey disagree with your cohost and have to wonder if his “Middle Ages” fantasy rants about the good old days (which were horrible) leave him in need of some counseling? It really bothers me as a U.S. citizen, who understands that that is exactly what the tech bros are wanting. Little Sovereign Feifdoms like the “good old days”. Yikes! I just cannot bear to listen to that any longer so I logged out. I wish you could just do a weekly show by yourself in English consistently. But that is just my personal opinion.). I do have and study all of your books and can clearly see you do not share these views on aristocracy so why you let him go on and on and on is just baffling? I always have and still do appreciate your thoughts on these matters. You make sense and you are, of course, candid.