Israel knows that waiting will lead to a greater Iranian threat. A massive attacl now would still be a masive risk.
Several quartets of F-35 stealth combat jets could fly by separate routes to hit sites across the massive Islamic Republic, some as far as 1,200 miles from the Jewish state. More countries would be implicated:
Some of the aircraft might fly along the border between Syria and Turkey (despite those countries’ opposition) and then race across Iraq (who would also oppose). Other aircraft might fly through Saudi airspace (unclear if this would be with quiet agreement or opposition) and the Persian Gulf. They might arrive simultaneously or in waves (as Iran did overnight between Saturday and Sunday) to first eliminate the ayatollahs’ air defenses at dozens of Iranian nuclear sites.
There might even be additional waves after that to assist in penetrating deep into the ground to destroy Iran’s top nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz. There are also additional facilities that Israel might strike, such as the heavy water reactor at Arak, the uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, research reactors at Bonab, Ramsar, and Tehran, and other facilities.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on Monday night spoke at the Nevatim air force base in southern Israel, which Iran targeted and partially hit on Sunday, saying,
“We are weighing our steps, and the firing of so many missiles, including cruise missiles, and drones at the State of Israel’s territory, will be responded to.”
The United Nations nuclear watchdog chief said on Monday he is concerned about Israel possibly targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, but that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of Iranian facilities would resume on Tuesday. Israel has reportedly sent messages to Arab countries across the Middle East saying that it will not respond to Iran’s drone and missile attack in a way that would endanger these countries or their governments, KAN reported early on Tuesday.
A report from the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah analyzes the consequences of an Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
“According to our assessment, it is very likely that the losses from the air strike at the nuclear facilities will exceed 5,000 workers. Secondary deaths among the population from the release of toxic and radioactive materials could increase this number to over 80,000 citizens.”
Hundreds of thousands of Iranian citizens would be exposed to “highly toxic clouds of chemicals and, from the destruction of active reactors, radioactive fallout in Arak and Bushehr.”
Afshin Molavi, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the New America Foundation, told Golnaz Esfandiari, a senior correspondent at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, that the study addresses a topic that is rarely touched on in discussions about attacking Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program .
“People talk jadedly about the prospect of military strikes and it’s all about the geopolitical consequences, the impact on the global economy or the price of oil and so on. But no one has ever talked about the humanitarian consequences of a military strike against Iran.”
“These humanitarian consequences are serious, so I think this report fills a very significant vacuum. It must be read by political leaders at the highest levels of Western governments, it must be read in Israel and everywhere else in the world.”
The analysis also looks at the psychological impact on Iranians:
“An entire generation will likely feel anger toward those who supported the attack or failed to prevent it.”
Former US Secretary of State Robert Gates stated:
“The results of an American or Israeli strike against Iran could, in my view, prove disastrous and cost us dearly for generations in this part of the world.”
